Heracles 2-2 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.74
Over 2.5
51%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.92
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.99
6+ Goals
11%
18.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.76
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
31.5
1/X
5%
13.2
X/1
14%
5.39
X/2
15%
5.52
X/X
11%
4.24
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
14%
3.89
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.5 — our 9% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.7pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.8pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
46%
+4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +47% / +47%
1.48/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.80
+24% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.9 Crosses 15.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Almere City
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.82 xG 0.79
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
269 Passes 276
68% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.11.2023 Almere City Almere City 0-5 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
31.03.2023 Heracles Heracles 1-1 HT 1-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
28.10.2022 Almere City Almere City 3-2 HT 0-2 Heracles Heracles HOL2
25.07.2018 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 2-1 Almere City Almere City HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
2-2
AWAY Almere City
1.87 xG 2.13
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 1
355 Passes 180
76% Pass Accuracy 62%
30 Box Touches 24
34 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heracles vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles and Almere City shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Heracles had 62% of the ball to Almere City's 38%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.87 to 2.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Heracles had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Heracles and 1.25 for Almere City.

What was the final score of Heracles vs Almere City?

Heracles 2-2 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heracles win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Heracles 39%, draw 23%, Almere City 38%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heracles) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heracles) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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