Fortuna Sittard 5-2 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Mar 2024

Fortuna Sittard
5-2 HT 4-0
Excelsior
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.95
Over 2.5
55%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.39
6+ Goals
12%
12.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.39 — our 27% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.47
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
15%
4.24
X/2
10%
7.98
X/X
10%
5.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
23.6
2/2
10%
5.93
2/X
6%
14.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
+0.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.7pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 29%
+22% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.69/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/2.06
+17% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -31%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 71%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
19.2 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Excelsior
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.33 xG 1.64
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
311 Passes 276
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
21.05.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
17.09.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
10.02.2019 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 4-1 HT 2-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
11.08.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
07.03.2014 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2

Fortuna Sittard 5-2 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
5-2
AWAY Excelsior
2.24 xG 0.92
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
341 Passes 392
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard ran out comfortable winners over Excelsior 5-2. Half-time: 4-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fortuna Sittard as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 47% of the ball to Excelsior's 53%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 2.24 to 0.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Sittard had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.50 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

Fortuna Sittard 5-2 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 50%, draw 22%, Excelsior 27%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Sittard), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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