Trefelin 3-1 Caerau (Ely) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 5 Jan 2024

Trefelin
3-1 HT 2-1
Caerau (Ely)
📅05/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2023/2024

Trefelin vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
26%
Over 2.5
74%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
70%
1.31
No
30%
3.14
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
27%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
23%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
+0.0pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.2pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-6.2pp
70%
BTTS Yes
72%
-1.9pp
30%
BTTS No
28%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Trefelin v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trefelin EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 48%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -52% / -52%
0.91/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/3.00
-46% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -50%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
278 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Trefelin vs Caerau (Ely) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trefelin
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Caerau (Ely)
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
The Meetings
17.11.2023 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 2-0 HT 1-0 Trefelin Trefelin GALFAW
POST-MATCH Trefelin vs Caerau (Ely)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trefelin saw off Caerau (Ely) 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Trefelin found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (74%), both teams to score (70%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Trefelin vs Caerau (Ely)?

Trefelin 3-1 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trefelin vs Caerau (Ely)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Trefelin 35%, draw 28%, Caerau (Ely) 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GALFAW More Wales - FAW Championship
5 Jan 2024
22:30 Llanelli Town vs Afan Lido Analysis →
22:30 Airbus UK vs Bangor 1876 Analysis →