Boavista 1-1 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 Jan 2024

Boavista
1-1 HT 1-1
Porto
📅05/01/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Boavista vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.4
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
52%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.57
2-3 Goals
44%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.32
6+ Goals
12%
12.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
11.35
1/2
8%
23.0
1/X
7%
19.8
X/1
6%
13.9
X/2
13%
3.46
X/X
10%
6.19
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
31%
1.73
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
18.95
Value flag · 2/X at 18.95 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
15%
+7.0pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.7pp
52%
Away Win
64%
-11.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.7pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Boavista v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boavista EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 69%
+0% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.10/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/0.88
+22% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +40%
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
228 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 80%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.3
18.4 Crosses 19.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Boavista vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boavista
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Porto
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.90 xG 2.32
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
209 Passes 444
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.04.2023 Porto Porto 1-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
12.11.2022 Boavista Boavista 1-4 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
20.03.2022 Boavista Boavista 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
30.10.2021 Porto Porto 4-1 HT 2-1 Boavista Boavista POR
13.02.2021 Porto Porto 2-2 HT 0-2 Boavista Boavista POR
26.09.2020 Boavista Boavista 0-5 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR

Boavista 1-1 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boavista
1-1
AWAY Porto
0.43 xG 2.10
32% Ball Possession 68%
7 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 6
179 Passes 481
68% Pass Accuracy 86%
7 Box Touches 46
8 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Boavista vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boavista and Porto shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Porto at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Boavista had 32% of the ball to Porto's 68%, shots finished 7-24, expected goals 0.43 to 2.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Boavista and 2.83 for Porto.

What was the final score of Boavista vs Porto?

Boavista 1-1 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boavista vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Boavista 22%, draw 26%, Porto 52%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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