Sporting CP 5-1 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 Jan 2024

Sporting CP
5-1 HT 2-0
Estoril
📅05/01/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Sporting CP vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.3
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.61
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.84
2-3 Goals
39%
2.04
4-5 Goals
26%
2.57
6+ Goals
14%
5.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.46
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
5%
22.15
X/1
13%
3.58
X/2
5%
20.2
X/X
7%
8.82
2/1
11%
20.6
2/2
5%
14.3
2/X
5%
21.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
73%
-4.9pp
18%
Draw
16%
+1.2pp
15%
Away Win
11%
+3.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Estoril — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
2.11/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/2.69
-7% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -4%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
455 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 77%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
24.5 Crosses 12.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.1

Sporting CP vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Estoril
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.88 xG 0.90
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 5
429 Passes 257
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.02.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
02.09.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
20.02.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
19.09.2021 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
01.11.2018 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril PORLC
04.02.2018 Estoril Estoril 2-0 HT 2-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR

Sporting CP 5-1 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
5-1
AWAY Estoril
4.29 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
24 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
420 Passes 418
90% Pass Accuracy 89%
40 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP swept aside Estoril 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Sporting CP had 50% of the ball to Estoril's 50%, shots finished 24-11, expected goals 4.29 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting CP and 0.67 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Estoril?

Sporting CP 5-1 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 68%, draw 18%, Estoril 15%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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