PSG 1-0 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Super Cup, 5 Jan 2025

PSG
1-0 HT 0-0
Monaco
📅05/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
France - Super Cup – 2024/2025

PSG vs Monaco Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.59
Over Pick
56%
1.5
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.51
No
46%
2.39
Total Goals
0-1
20%
5.52
2-3
45%
2.0
4-5
25%
2.55
6+
10%
5.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.97
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.2
X/1
20%
4.17
X/2
6%
10.95
X/X
11%
6.9
2/1 ✗
7%
19.55
2/2
11%
7.27
2/X
6%
15.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.55 — our 7% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

PSG v Monaco — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco The Market 23%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+64% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
500 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 79%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
9.6 Crosses –
0.9 Yellow Cards –

PSG vs Monaco Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Monaco
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.72 xG 1.94
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
546 Passes 317
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.12.2024 Monaco Monaco 2-4 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
01.03.2024 Monaco Monaco 0-0 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
24.11.2023 PSG PSG 5-2 HT 2-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
11.02.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-1 HT 3-1 PSG PSG FR1
28.08.2022 PSG PSG 1-1 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
20.03.2022 Monaco Monaco 3-0 HT 1-0 PSG PSG FR1

PSG 1-0 Monaco — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
1-0
AWAY Monaco
3.24 xG 0.76
59% Ball Possession 41%
28 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 2
518 Passes 328
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
46 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW PSG vs Monaco
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

PSG came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Monaco 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (56%) never looked like landing.

The match data tells the story: PSG had 59% of the ball to Monaco's 41%, shots finished 28-12, expected goals 3.24 to 0.76 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PSG's control.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for PSG and 1.83 for Monaco.

PSG vs Monaco Result & Final Score

PSG 1-0 Monaco in the France - Super Cup on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

PSG vs Monaco Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split PSG 54%, draw 24%, Monaco 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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