River Plate 5-0 Velez Sarsfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
32%
3.64
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.62
Over 2.5
36%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.19
No
62%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.55
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
15%
4.57
6+ Goals
9%
24.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.55 — our 37% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.11
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
17.4
X/1
16%
3.5
X/2
6%
10.4
X/X
15%
4.47
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
10%
9.38
2/X
9%
18.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-11.7pp
32%
Draw
25%
+7.1pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
58%
+5.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
42%
-5.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.1pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME River Plate EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 20%
-12% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.86/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.17
+9% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
317 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 67%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
23.7 Crosses 14.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME River Plate
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.13 xG 1.18
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
378 Passes 245
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.09.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-0 HT 1-0 River Plate River Plate ARJ
30.05.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-2 HT 0-1 River Plate River Plate ARJ
18.07.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-2 HT 1-2 River Plate River Plate ARJ
07.07.2022 River Plate River Plate 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield LKU
30.06.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-0 HT 1-0 River Plate River Plate LKU
15.08.2021 River Plate River Plate 2-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME River Plate
5-0
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
2.71 xG 1.45
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
362 Passes 277
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

River Plate cruised past Velez Sarsfield 5-0. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had River Plate as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (64%) missed.

On the day, River Plate had 56% of the ball to Velez Sarsfield's 44%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.71 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Velez Sarsfield led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for River Plate and 1.17 for Velez Sarsfield.

What was the final score of River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?

River Plate 5-0 Velez Sarsfield in the Argentina - Premier League on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a River Plate win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split River Plate 47%, draw 32%, Velez Sarsfield 21%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (River Plate), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (River Plate) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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