Malacateco 1-1 Xinabajul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Guatemala - National League, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.85
No
56%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.9pp
56%
BTTS No
50%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malacateco EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Xinabajul EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.63/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.29
-1% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -40%
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malacateco
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Xinabajul
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
57% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
25.09.2023 Xinabajul Xinabajul 2-1 HT 1-0 Malacateco Malacateco GUAT
20.08.2023 Malacateco Malacateco 3-1 HT 1-1 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
23.04.2023 Malacateco Malacateco 3-0 HT 3-0 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
27.02.2023 Xinabajul Xinabajul 1-1 HT 0-0 Malacateco Malacateco GUAT
20.11.2022 Malacateco Malacateco 2-1 HT 0-0 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
12.09.2022 Xinabajul Xinabajul 3-1 HT 1-1 Malacateco Malacateco GUAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malacateco
1-1
AWAY Xinabajul
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Malacateco vs Xinabajul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malacateco and Xinabajul couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Malacateco at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Malacateco had 39% of the ball to Xinabajul's 61%, shots finished 8-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malacateco had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Malacateco and 1.33 for Xinabajul.

What was the final score of Malacateco vs Xinabajul?

Malacateco 1-1 Xinabajul in the Guatemala - National League on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malacateco vs Xinabajul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malacateco win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Malacateco 51%, draw 26%, Xinabajul 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Malacateco), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malacateco) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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GUAT More Guatemala - National League
5 Feb 2024
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