AZ Alkmaar II 1-0 Roda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
41%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
4.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 26% vs market 17.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.1
1/2
7%
23.0
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
12%
6.35
X/2
16%
5.02
X/X
12%
5.51
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
17%
2.97
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
41%
Away Win
50%
-8.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.0pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Roda EU Bookmakers 54%
+7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.02/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.08
-6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
10.2 Crosses 19.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Roda
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.81 xG 1.56
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
366 Passes 377
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Roda Roda 3-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
13.03.2023 Roda Roda 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
07.11.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-0 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
04.04.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
19.11.2021 Roda Roda 2-2 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
30.04.2021 Roda Roda 0-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
1-0
AWAY Roda
0.69 xG 1.23
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
260 Passes 358
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 30
4 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs Roda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar II edged past Roda 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Roda at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 43% of the ball to Roda's 57%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 0.69 to 1.23 — on chances, Roda could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roda led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar II and 1.33 for Roda.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs Roda?

AZ Alkmaar II 1-0 Roda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs Roda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 35%, draw 24%, Roda 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Roda), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roda) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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