Utrecht II 0-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.33
Over 2.5
45%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.46
No
53%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
4.94
2-3 Goals
43%
1.94
4-5 Goals
19%
2.75
6+ Goals
8%
7.27
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.94 — our 30% vs market 15.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.06
1/2
6%
22.6
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
12%
6.62
X/2
13%
5.29
X/X
12%
5.48
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
23%
2.97
2/X
7%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
33%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
42%
Away Win
42%
+0.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
39%
+15.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
61%
-15.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
64%
-17.6pp
53%
BTTS No
36%
+17.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 46%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.22/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.57
-21% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 74%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.5
12.9 Crosses 14.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Ajax II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.41 xG 1.23
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
284 Passes 431
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.12.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 2-1 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
24.04.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-0 HT 0-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
11.12.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
10.01.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-2 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
15.10.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 3-1 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
18.01.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-2 HT 0-2 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
0-1
AWAY Ajax II
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax II squeezed past Utrecht II 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax II as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Utrecht II had 46% of the ball to Ajax II's 54%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Utrecht II and 1.67 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs Ajax II?

Utrecht II 0-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 31%, draw 27%, Ajax II 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax II), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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