Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 Monarcas Morelia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 5 Feb 2024

📅05/02/2024 · 🕒01:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
31%
+5.8pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-6.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 45%
+11% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -13%
1.13/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.45
-6% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Monarcas Morelia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
03.11.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
03.02.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
30.09.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-1 HT 1-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
01.04.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
16.05.2021 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-2 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
13.05.2021 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Monarcas Morelia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos edged past Monarcas Morelia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day Tepatitlán de Morelos made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 0.83 for Monarcas Morelia.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Monarcas Morelia?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 Monarcas Morelia in the Mexico - Primera A on 05/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Monarcas Morelia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 37%, draw 25%, Monarcas Morelia 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monarcas Morelia), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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