Leganes 2-3 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 5 Feb 2025

Leganes
2-3 HT 1-2
Real Madrid
📅05/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Copa del Rey – 2024/2025

Leganes vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.65
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
47%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
8.4
1/2
10%
21.7
1/X
8%
16.4
X/1
8%
10.6
X/2
16%
4.16
X/X
14%
5.63
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.0
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
19%
+5.2pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.4pp
47%
Away Win
58%
-10.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.6pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leganes v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 62%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.10/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.34
+5% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -1%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
240 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 440 · 80%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.5
18.0 Crosses 19.2
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Leganes vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.87 xG 2.04
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
264 Passes 536
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 36
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.11.2024 Leganes Leganes 0-3 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
19.07.2020 Leganes Leganes 2-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
30.10.2019 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-0 HT 3-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
15.04.2019 Leganes Leganes 1-1 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
16.01.2019 Leganes Leganes 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
09.01.2019 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İSPK

Leganes 2-3 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
2-3
AWAY Real Madrid
1.79 xG 2.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 12
3 Corners 7
349 Passes 533
88% Pass Accuracy 93%
22 Box Touches 39
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid nicked a narrow win over Leganes 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Leganes had 41% of the ball to Real Madrid's 59%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 1.79 to 2.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Leganes and 2.33 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Real Madrid?

Leganes 2-3 Real Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 05/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Leganes 24%, draw 29%, Real Madrid 47%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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