Erbil 3-1 Naft — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 5 Feb 2026

Erbil
3-1 HT 0-1
Naft
📅05/02/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Iraq - Premier League – 2025/2026

Erbil vs Naft Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
2.18
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
19%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.52
Over 2.5
49%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.16
No
48%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
42%
+9.5pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.1pp
19%
Away Win
27%
-7.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
62%
-11.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
38%
+11.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
42%
+9.4pp
48%
BTTS No
58%
-9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erbil v Naft — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erbil EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Naft EU Bookmakers 30%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.20/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/0.45
+3% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / +149%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
262 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Erbil vs Naft Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erbil
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Naft
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
The Meetings
16.04.2025 Erbil Erbil 2-3 HT 1-1 Naft Naft IRAK
POST-MATCH Erbil vs Naft
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erbil got the better of Naft 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Erbil as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

What was the final score of Erbil vs Naft?

Erbil 3-1 Naft in the Iraq - Premier League on 05/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erbil vs Naft?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erbil win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Erbil 52%, draw 29%, Naft 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erbil), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erbil) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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