Erbil 2-3 Naft — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 16 Apr 2025

Erbil
2-3 HT 1-1
Naft
📅16/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
29%
2.66
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.27
No
56%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+4.3pp
29%
Draw
34%
-4.8pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.8pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erbil EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Naft EU Bookmakers 40%
-39% / -39% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
0.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.25/1.51
-100% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -79% / -37%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Erbil vs Naft
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naft nicked a narrow win over Erbil 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and on the day Naft made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Erbil vs Naft?

Erbil 2-3 Naft in the Iraq - Premier League on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erbil vs Naft?

Before kick-off our model rated an Naft win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Erbil 34%, draw 29%, Naft 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naft) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naft) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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