Umm Salal 3-4 Al Shamal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 5 Mar 2024

Umm Salal
3-4 HT 0-2
Al Shamal
📅05/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Qatar League – 2023/2024

Umm Salal vs Al Shamal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 26% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Umm Salal v Al Shamal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Umm Salal EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shamal EU Bookmakers 36%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.79/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.27
-46% / +73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
252 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 83%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
12.8 Crosses 15.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Umm Salal vs Al Shamal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Umm Salal
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Shamal
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.18 xG 0.42
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
200 Passes 310
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
8 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.12.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Shamal Al Shamal KATYK
29.09.2023 Al Shamal Al Shamal 1-3 HT 1-1 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
03.05.2023 Umm Salal Umm Salal 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Shamal Al Shamal KAT
13.03.2023 Al Shamal Al Shamal 0-1 HT 0-0 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
23.01.2022 Al Shamal Al Shamal 0-6 HT 0-2 Umm Salal Umm Salal KAT
05.12.2021 Al Shamal Al Shamal 3-2 HT 2-0 Umm Salal Umm Salal KATYK

Umm Salal 3-4 Al Shamal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Umm Salal
3-4
AWAY Al Shamal
0.77 xG 1.17
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 1
466 Passes 253
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Umm Salal vs Al Shamal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Shamal edged past Umm Salal 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; Al Shamal found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Umm Salal had 63% of the ball to Al Shamal's 37%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.77 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Umm Salal had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Umm Salal and 0.83 for Al Shamal.

What was the final score of Umm Salal vs Al Shamal?

Umm Salal 3-4 Al Shamal in the Qatar League on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Umm Salal vs Al Shamal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Shamal win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Umm Salal 35%, draw 29%, Al Shamal 37%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Shamal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Shamal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KAT More Qatar League
5 Mar 2024
18:00 Al Duhail SC vs Al Markhiya Analysis →
20:00 Al Muaidar vs Al Ahli Analysis →