Paderborn 2-3 Hertha Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 5 Apr 2024

Paderborn
2-3 HT 1-1
Hertha Berlin
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Paderborn vs Hertha Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.54
2-3 Goals
38%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.74
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.25
X/1
17%
5.17
X/2
13%
7.25
X/X
12%
5.78
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.45
2/2
13%
4.39
2/X
6%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.4pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paderborn v Hertha Berlin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Hertha Berlin EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +12%
1.91/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.26
-1% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
18.6 Crosses 19.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Paderborn vs Hertha Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Hertha Berlin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.71 xG 1.45
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
361 Passes 256
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 3-1 HT 2-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
15.02.2020 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 0-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
21.09.2019 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-1 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
05.04.2015 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin 2-0 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
02.11.2014 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 1-1 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL1
08.12.2012 Paderborn Paderborn 0-1 HT 0-0 Hertha Berlin Hertha Berlin AL2

Paderborn 2-3 Hertha Berlin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
2-3
AWAY Hertha Berlin
2.06 xG 1.82
47% Ball Possession 53%
20 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
337 Passes 397
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 20
29 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Hertha Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hertha Berlin nicked a narrow win over Paderborn 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Paderborn at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paderborn had 47% of the ball to Hertha Berlin's 53%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.06 to 1.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hertha Berlin led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Paderborn and 1.83 for Hertha Berlin.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Hertha Berlin?

Paderborn 2-3 Hertha Berlin in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Hertha Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 42%, draw 26%, Hertha Berlin 31%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paderborn) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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