FC Minsk 2-3 Smorgon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.78
Over 2.5
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 33% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.4pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Minsk EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Smorgon EU Bookmakers 21%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.98/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/2.49
+3% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -34%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
300 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Minsk
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Smorgon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
10.06.2023 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-1 HT 2-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
28.11.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Minsk FC Minsk BLR
02.07.2021 FC Minsk FC Minsk 2-2 HT 1-2 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Minsk
2-3
AWAY Smorgon
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Minsk vs Smorgon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon nicked a narrow win over FC Minsk 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had FC Minsk at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Minsk had 59% of the ball to Smorgon's 41%, shots finished 19-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Minsk and 1.00 for Smorgon.

What was the final score of FC Minsk vs Smorgon?

FC Minsk 2-3 Smorgon in the Belarus - Premier League on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Minsk vs Smorgon?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Minsk win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split FC Minsk 55%, draw 24%, Smorgon 21%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Minsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BLR More Belarus - Premier League
5 Apr 2024
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