West Ham United U21 3-2 Derby County U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
3.17
Over 2.5
66%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.46
No
43%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-8.6pp
19%
Draw
18%
+0.9pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.7pp
34%
Under 2.5
28%
+5.4pp
66%
Over 2.5
72%
-5.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.3pp
43%
BTTS No
36%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Ham United U21 EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 20%
-66% / -66% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
419 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
28.0 Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Ham United U21
3-2
AWAY Derby County U21
1.30 xG 1.37
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
475 Passes 267
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH West Ham United U21 vs Derby County U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Ham United U21 nicked a narrow win over Derby County U21 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had West Ham United U21 as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, West Ham United U21 had 61% of the ball to Derby County U21's 39%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.30 to 1.37.

What was the final score of West Ham United U21 vs Derby County U21?

West Ham United U21 3-2 Derby County U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Ham United U21 vs Derby County U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Ham United U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split West Ham United U21 57%, draw 19%, Derby County U21 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (West Ham United U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (West Ham United U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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