Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 Tlaxcala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.68
Over 2.5
56%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.85
No
40%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+0.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
56%
-11.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
44%
+11.1pp
60%
BTTS Yes
50%
+9.8pp
40%
BTTS No
50%
-9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Tlaxcala EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.05/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.79
-19% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -32%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
224 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Tlaxcala
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
2 Total Shots 1
0 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 1
14.10.2023 Tlaxcala 0-1 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
15.04.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
21.09.2022 Tlaxcala 2-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
26.01.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 0-0 Tlaxcala MEK2
23.09.2021 Tlaxcala 0-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
07.04.2021 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 2-1 Tlaxcala MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tlaxcala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos and Tlaxcala shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 0.67 for Tlaxcala.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tlaxcala?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 Tlaxcala in the Mexico - Primera A on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tlaxcala?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tlaxcala win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 34%, draw 28%, Tlaxcala 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tlaxcala), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tlaxcala) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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