Sturm Graz II 0-1 Austria Lustenau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.48
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 33% vs market 22.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.56
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
14%
5.63
X/2
13%
5.98
X/X
14%
4.99
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
15%
3.92
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.3pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Austria Lustenau EU Bookmakers 38%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.41/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.34
-10% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
252 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
Crosses 19.4
3.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz II
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Austria Lustenau
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
21.09.2024 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 0-0 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz II
0-1
AWAY Austria Lustenau
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz II vs Austria Lustenau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austria Lustenau squeezed past Sturm Graz II 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Austria Lustenau made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Sturm Graz II had 46% of the ball to Austria Lustenau's 54%, shots finished 14-13.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz II vs Austria Lustenau?

Sturm Graz II 0-1 Austria Lustenau in the Austria - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz II vs Austria Lustenau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz II win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz II 37%, draw 28%, Austria Lustenau 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sturm Graz II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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