Okzhetpes 0-1 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.13
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
45%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.6
Over 2.5
48%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
21%
+8.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
44%
Away Win
53%
-8.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Okzhetpes EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 57%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -21%
1.09/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.02
+27% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Okzhetpes
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Tobol
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
23.07.2023 Tobol Tobol 2-0 HT 1-0 Okzhetpes Okzhetpes KAZP
28.05.2023 Okzhetpes Okzhetpes 1-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
24.11.2020 Okzhetpes Okzhetpes 0-2 HT 0-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
22.09.2020 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 0-0 Okzhetpes Okzhetpes KAZP
15.09.2019 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 0-0 Okzhetpes Okzhetpes KAZP
27.09.2015 Okzhetpes Okzhetpes 1-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH Okzhetpes vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol nicked a narrow win over Okzhetpes 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Okzhetpes and 1.67 for Tobol.

What was the final score of Okzhetpes vs Tobol?

Okzhetpes 0-1 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Okzhetpes vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Okzhetpes 29%, draw 26%, Tobol 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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