FS Jelgava 2-1 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.67
Over 2.5
51%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+5.1pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.1pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 40%
+15% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.03/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.10
-20% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
267 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
15.3 Crosses 30.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Super Nova
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.43 xG 1.53
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
364 Passes 280
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.10.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
09.07.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-2 HT 1-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
18.05.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 2-2 HT 2-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
05.04.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
2-1
AWAY Super Nova
0.86 xG 1.23
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
259 Passes 347
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FS Jelgava edged past Super Nova 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 34% — and on the day FS Jelgava made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 47% of the ball to Super Nova's 53%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 0.86 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for FS Jelgava and 1.25 for Super Nova.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?

FS Jelgava 2-1 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 40%, draw 25%, Super Nova 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FS Jelgava), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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