Manchester City (K) 1-2 Arsenal (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Women's Premier League, 5 May 2024

Manchester City (K)
1-2 HT 1-0
Arsenal (K)
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - Women's Premier League – 2023/2024

Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
2.02
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
25%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.53
No
53%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
46%
+7.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.3pp
25%
Away Win
30%
-4.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
61%
-14.6pp
53%
BTTS No
39%
+14.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City (K) v Arsenal (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City (K) EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal (K) EU Bookmakers 33%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -45% / -45%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
+48% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -55%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
– Crosses 11.0
– Yellow Cards 2.0

Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City (K)
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Arsenal (K)
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.23 xG 1.07
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
381 Passes 408
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKFAK
27.10.2019 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 1-0 HT 1-0 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKPL
11.05.2019 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKPL
23.02.2019 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKLK
02.12.2018 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) 2-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) İNKPL
12.05.2018 Arsenal (K) Arsenal (K) 2-1 HT 0-1 Manchester City (K) Manchester City (K) İNKPL

Manchester City (K) 1-2 Arsenal (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City (K)
1-2
AWAY Arsenal (K)
1.38 xG 2.19
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
362 Passes 434
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal (K) edged past Manchester City (K) 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester City (K) at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Manchester City (K) had 45% of the ball to Arsenal (K)'s 55%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.38 to 2.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal (K) led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Manchester City (K) and 0.67 for Arsenal (K).

What was the final score of Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K)?

Manchester City (K) 1-2 Arsenal (K) in the England - Women's Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City (K) vs Arsenal (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Manchester City (K) 53%, draw 23%, Arsenal (K) 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City (K)) ✗ BTTS No
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İNKPL More England - Women's Premier League
5 May 2024
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