Basel 1-1 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 5 May 2024

Basel
1-1 HT 0-0
Luzern
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2023/2024

Basel vs Luzern Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
13%
7.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.82
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
30.0
1/X
6%
11.8
X/1
15%
5.19
X/2
11%
7.25
X/X
9%
5.23
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
15%
4.54
2/X
8%
12.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.0 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+6.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.2pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Basel v Luzern — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.72/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.39
-16% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
20.8 Crosses 18.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Basel vs Luzern Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Luzern
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.28 xG 1.46
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
328 Passes 325
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Luzern Luzern 1-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
17.12.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.09.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
23.04.2023 Basel Basel 0-2 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
04.03.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
28.01.2023 Basel Basel 2-3 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSV

Basel 1-1 Luzern — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
1-1
AWAY Luzern
0.88 xG 1.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
413 Passes 303
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Basel vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel and Luzern couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Basel at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Basel had 57% of the ball to Luzern's 43%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.88 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Basel and 1.17 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Basel vs Luzern?

Basel 1-1 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Basel 41%, draw 23%, Luzern 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Basel) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
5 May 2024
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