Luzern 1-1 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 21 Apr 2024

Luzern
1-1 HT 0-1
Basel
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.21
Over 2.5
46%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
22%
2.93
6+ Goals
9%
8.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.42 — our 31% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.1
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
9%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.22
X/2
7%
6.29
X/X
12%
5.4
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
19%
4.0
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.9pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.1pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+13.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-13.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.4pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.64/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.37
+1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
287 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
20.5 Crosses 15.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Basel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.41 xG 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
327 Passes 318
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
28.09.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
23.04.2023 Basel Basel 0-2 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
04.03.2023 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
28.01.2023 Basel Basel 2-3 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
09.11.2022 Luzern Luzern 0-2 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-1
AWAY Basel
1.29 xG 1.64
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 7
325 Passes 337
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 32
30 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luzern and Basel couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Luzern had 51% of the ball to Basel's 49%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 1.29 to 1.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Luzern and 1.17 for Basel.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Basel?

Luzern 1-1 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Luzern 37%, draw 30%, Basel 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
21 Apr 2024
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