Zürich 0-1 St. Gallen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.03
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1
12%
5.16
X/2 EV+ ✓
16%
6.52
X/X
10%
5.22
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
15%
4.2
2/X
8%
12.75
Value flag · X/2 at 6.52 — our 16% vs market 11.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zürich EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -18%
1.43/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.48
+2% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.6 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zürich
2W-2D-2L
AWAY St. Gallen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 1.24
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
248 Passes 286
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.12.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-0 HT 1-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
26.08.2023 Zürich Zürich 1-1 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
23.04.2023 Zürich Zürich 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
02.04.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
29.01.2023 Zürich Zürich 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
30.07.2022 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-0 HT 2-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zürich
0-1
AWAY St. Gallen
0.39 xG 1.06
52% Ball Possession 48%
4 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
268 Passes 244
70% Pass Accuracy 67%
15 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Zürich vs St. Gallen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Gallen squeezed past Zürich 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; St. Gallen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Zürich had 52% of the ball to St. Gallen's 48%, shots finished 4-9, expected goals 0.39 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Zürich and 1.00 for St. Gallen.

What was the final score of Zürich vs St. Gallen?

Zürich 0-1 St. Gallen in the Switzerland - Super League on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zürich vs St. Gallen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zürich win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Zürich 38%, draw 24%, St. Gallen 38%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
21 Apr 2024
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