Preussen Münster 4-1 Saarbrücken — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.48
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
27.0
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
13%
5.5
X/2
10%
5.73
X/X
11%
5.08
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
20%
3.69
2/X
9%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Preussen Münster EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 39%
+11% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
2.09/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.28
+39% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
223 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 67%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.4 Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Preussen Münster
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Saarbrücken
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
38% Ball Possession 62%
5 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-0 HT 0-0 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster AL3
20.04.2014 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster 2-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
09.11.2013 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-2 HT 0-1 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster AL3
06.04.2013 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster 3-3 HT 1-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
06.10.2012 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-0 HT 0-0 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster AL3
14.04.2012 Preussen Münster Preussen Münster 1-0 HT 0-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Preussen Münster
4-1
AWAY Saarbrücken
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Preussen Münster vs Saarbrücken
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Preussen Münster ran out comfortable winners over Saarbrücken 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Preussen Münster made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Preussen Münster had 47% of the ball to Saarbrücken's 53%, shots finished 18-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Preussen Münster had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Preussen Münster and 0.83 for Saarbrücken.

What was the final score of Preussen Münster vs Saarbrücken?

Preussen Münster 4-1 Saarbrücken in the Germany - 3rd Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Preussen Münster vs Saarbrücken?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Preussen Münster 35%, draw 26%, Saarbrücken 39%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Saarbrücken), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
5 May 2024
17:30 Hallescher FC vs Unterhaching Analysis →
20:30 Ingolstadt vs Waldhof Mannheim Analysis →