Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.27
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
75%
-13.2pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.2pp
17%
Away Win
9%
+8.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.4pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Boys EU Bookmakers 11%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
2.07/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.75
+0% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
359 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 73%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.7
22.7 Crosses 13.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Sport Boys
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.69 xG 0.44
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
344 Passes 255
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.07.2023 Sport Boys Sport Boys 0-2 HT 0-2 Melgar Melgar PER
12.05.2023 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 1-0 Sport Boys Sport Boys PER
20.10.2022 Melgar Melgar 3-0 HT 0-0 Sport Boys Sport Boys PER
19.06.2022 Sport Boys Sport Boys 0-1 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
26.09.2021 Melgar Melgar 1-0 HT 0-0 Sport Boys Sport Boys PER
10.11.2020 Melgar Melgar 4-1 HT 1-1 Sport Boys Sport Boys PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
2-1
AWAY Sport Boys
1.51 xG 0.43
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
161 Passes 292
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 7
19 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Sport Boys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar nicked a narrow win over Sport Boys 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melgar had 40% of the ball to Sport Boys's 60%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.51 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Melgar and 0.17 for Sport Boys.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Sport Boys?

Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys in the Peru - Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Sport Boys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Melgar 61%, draw 22%, Sport Boys 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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