CD Castellon 4-3 Sporting Gijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.91
Over 2.5
45%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.41
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 28% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.19
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
20%
4.3
X/2
11%
9.94
X/X
13%
5.15
2/1
8%
23.3
2/2
9%
7.96
2/X
6%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 23%
-20% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.88/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.54
-28% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.8 Crosses 15.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Castellon
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sporting Gijon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.59 xG 1.68
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
262 Passes 409
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.10.2024 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-1 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
24.01.2021 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
02.11.2020 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
08.06.2008 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
13.01.2008 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-2 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
15.04.2007 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-2 HT 1-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CD Castellon
4-3
AWAY Sporting Gijon
2.22 xG 2.95
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
309 Passes 271
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CD Castellon vs Sporting Gijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon nicked a narrow win over Sporting Gijon 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CD Castellon as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CD Castellon had 52% of the ball to Sporting Gijon's 48%, shots finished 18-18, expected goals 2.22 to 2.95 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sporting Gijon.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Castellon had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for CD Castellon and 0.83 for Sporting Gijon.

What was the final score of CD Castellon vs Sporting Gijon?

CD Castellon 4-3 Sporting Gijon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Castellon vs Sporting Gijon?

Before kick-off our model rated a CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split CD Castellon 48%, draw 27%, Sporting Gijon 25%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CD Castellon) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CD Castellon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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