Korona Kielce 2-1 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 5 May 2025

Korona Kielce
2-1 HT 1-0
Katowice
📅05/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Korona Kielce vs Katowice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 27% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.97
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
22%
4.97
X/2
11%
6.96
X/X
11%
4.91
2/1
7%
24.65
2/2
15%
4.96
2/X
7%
13.75
Value flag · X/1 at 4.97 — our 22% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Korona Kielce v Katowice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.51/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.58
+0% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
22.3 Crosses 19.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Korona Kielce vs Katowice Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Katowice
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.30 xG 1.20
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
237 Passes 398
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2024 Katowice Katowice 1-2 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
10.12.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-0 Katowice Katowice HAZ
14.05.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-2 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
06.11.2021 Katowice Katowice 1-0 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL1

Korona Kielce 2-1 Katowice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
2-1
AWAY Katowice
1.70 xG 0.80
39% Ball Possession 61%
20 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
237 Passes 430
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce squeezed past Katowice 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Korona Kielce as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 39% of the ball to Katowice's 61%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 1.70 to 0.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Katowice led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.25 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Katowice?

Korona Kielce 2-1 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Korona Kielce win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 43%, draw 25%, Katowice 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Korona Kielce) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Korona Kielce) ✗ Under 2.5
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