İspanya 5-4 Fransa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 5 Jun 2025

İspanya
5-4 HT 2-0
Fransa
📅05/06/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
UEFA Uluslar League – 2024/2025

İspanya vs Fransa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
39%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.92
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.84
6+ Goals
10%
17.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.46
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
17%
5.32
X/2 EV+ ✗
20%
6.29
X/X
12%
4.33
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
14%
4.5
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · X/2 at 6.29 — our 20% vs market 12.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-5.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.9pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+8.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İspanya v Fransa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İspanya EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Fransa EU Bookmakers 34%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +53% / +53%
2.56/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.81
+114% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +98% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
13.6 Crosses 10.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

İspanya vs Fransa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İspanya
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Fransa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.78 xG 1.08
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
598 Passes 288
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.07.2024 İspanya İspanya 2-1 HT 2-1 Fransa Fransa AVR
10.10.2021 İspanya İspanya 1-2 HT 0-0 Fransa Fransa AVUL
28.03.2017 Fransa Fransa 0-2 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya HAZ
04.09.2014 Fransa Fransa 1-0 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya HAZ
26.03.2013 Fransa Fransa 0-1 HT 0-0 İspanya İspanya DKE
16.10.2012 İspanya İspanya 1-1 HT 1-0 Fransa Fransa DKE

İspanya 5-4 Fransa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İspanya
5-4
AWAY Fransa
2.88 xG 2.74
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 24
8 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 6
323 Passes 453
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
23 Box Touches 43
7 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH İspanya vs Fransa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya squeezed past Fransa 5-4. Half-time: 2-0. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day İspanya made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, İspanya had 43% of the ball to Fransa's 57%, shots finished 16-24, expected goals 2.88 to 2.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, İspanya had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for İspanya and 0.83 for Fransa.

What was the final score of İspanya vs Fransa?

İspanya 5-4 Fransa in the UEFA Uluslar League on 05/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İspanya vs Fransa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fransa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split İspanya 35%, draw 26%, Fransa 39%. The final score 5-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fransa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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