Henan Jianye 0-1 Shanghai Port — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 5 Jul 2024

📅05/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.48
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
51%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.51
Over 2.5
49%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.56
No
54%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
23%
5.3
2-3 Goals
43%
1.98
4-5 Goals
23%
2.69
6+ Goals
11%
6.71
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.3 — our 23% vs market 14.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.46
1/2
7%
19.8
1/X
5%
15.5
X/1
9%
10.95
X/2
20%
4.07
X/X
12%
6.58
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.95
2/X
6%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
20%
+6.6pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
51%
Away Win
59%
-7.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
36%
+15.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
64%
-15.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.9pp
54%
BTTS No
40%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Henan Jianye EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Shanghai Port EU Bookmakers 62%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.41/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.70
-75% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%
11.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
15.3 Crosses 28.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Henan Jianye
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Shanghai Port
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.41 xG 1.65
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
224 Passes 343
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port 3-1 HT 0-0 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİN
25.08.2023 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 3-1 HT 1-0 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port ÇİN
24.05.2023 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port 3-2 HT 2-1 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİN
30.11.2022 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port 1-3 HT 1-1 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİN
20.09.2022 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 1-2 HT 0-2 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port ÇİN
22.09.2019 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port 2-1 HT 1-0 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİNSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Henan Jianye
0-1
AWAY Shanghai Port
0.48 xG 1.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
97 Passes 108
39% Pass Accuracy 43%
31 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Port
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shanghai Port edged past Henan Jianye 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Shanghai Port as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Henan Jianye had 52% of the ball to Shanghai Port's 48%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.48 to 1.76 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Shanghai Port's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shanghai Port led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Henan Jianye and 2.00 for Shanghai Port.

What was the final score of Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Port?

Henan Jianye 0-1 Shanghai Port in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 05/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Port?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shanghai Port win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Henan Jianye 26%, draw 23%, Shanghai Port 51%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shanghai Port), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shanghai Port) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →