Shanghai Port 3-1 Henan Jianye — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.33
Over 2.5
49%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.78
2-3 Goals
36%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.82
6+ Goals
12%
7.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.78 — our 27% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.91
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
16%
3.94
X/2
7%
11.3
X/X
13%
6.38
2/1
9%
20.4
2/2
9%
8.05
2/X
6%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.5pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.7pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
39%
+12.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
61%
-12.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shanghai Port EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Henan Jianye EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
1.91/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.20
+10% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
28.1 Crosses 16.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shanghai Port
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Henan Jianye
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.56 xG 1.28
57% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
342 Passes 233
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.08.2023 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 3-1 HT 1-0 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port ÇİN
24.05.2023 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port 3-2 HT 2-1 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİN
30.11.2022 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port 1-3 HT 1-1 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİN
20.09.2022 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 1-2 HT 0-2 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port ÇİN
22.09.2019 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port 2-1 HT 1-0 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye ÇİNSL
17.05.2019 Henan Jianye Henan Jianye 0-1 HT 0-1 Shanghai Port Shanghai Port ÇİNSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shanghai Port
3-1
AWAY Henan Jianye
1.74 xG 1.11
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
364 Passes 216
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Shanghai Port vs Henan Jianye
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shanghai Port got the better of Henan Jianye 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Shanghai Port as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Shanghai Port had 61% of the ball to Henan Jianye's 39%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.74 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shanghai Port had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Shanghai Port and 1.67 for Henan Jianye.

What was the final score of Shanghai Port vs Henan Jianye?

Shanghai Port 3-1 Henan Jianye in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shanghai Port vs Henan Jianye?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shanghai Port win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Shanghai Port 51%, draw 27%, Henan Jianye 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shanghai Port) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shanghai Port) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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