Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 Beijing Guoan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
30%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.85
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.1
6+ Goals
10%
19.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 33% vs market 29.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.57
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
4%
12.95
X/1
17%
5.21
X/2
11%
5.87
X/X
12%
4.08
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
14%
4.23
2/X
13%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wuhan Three Towns EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Beijing Guoan EU Bookmakers 36%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.16/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.19
-16% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
14.7 Crosses 15.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wuhan Three Towns
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Beijing Guoan
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.40 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
291 Passes 354
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.07.2023 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 1-1 HT 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns ÇİNSL
20.04.2023 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 HT 0-0 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
08.11.2022 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 0-2 HT 0-1 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns ÇİN
12.08.2022 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns 5-1 HT 2-1 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wuhan Three Towns
0-1
AWAY Beijing Guoan
0.26 xG 0.90
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
429 Passes 338
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beijing Guoan squeezed past Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Wuhan Three Towns at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Wuhan Three Towns had 55% of the ball to Beijing Guoan's 45%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.26 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Wuhan Three Towns had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.75 for Beijing Guoan.

What was the final score of Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?

Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 Beijing Guoan in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wuhan Three Towns win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Wuhan Three Towns 41%, draw 29%, Beijing Guoan 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Wuhan Three Towns) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wuhan Three Towns) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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