Arjantin 1-1 Ekvador — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa America, 5 Jul 2024

Arjantin
1-1 HT 1-0
Ekvador
📅05/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Copa America – 2024

Arjantin vs Ekvador Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.49
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.53
No
54%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.41
2-3 Goals
47%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.97
6+ Goals
11%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.86
1/2
4%
120.0
1/X
4%
20.7
X/1
15%
3.28
X/2
7%
14.3
X/X
13%
4.48
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
9%
13.95
2/X
8%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-8.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+7.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
36%
+10.6pp
54%
BTTS No
64%
-10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arjantin v Ekvador — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arjantin EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ekvador EU Bookmakers 15%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
2.26/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.13
+8% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
378 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 77%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
10.1 Crosses 23.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Arjantin vs Ekvador Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arjantin
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Ekvador
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.64 xG 0.58
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
443 Passes 274
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.06.2024 Arjantin Arjantin 1-0 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ
08.09.2023 Arjantin Arjantin 1-0 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
30.03.2022 Ekvador Ekvador 1-1 HT 0-1 Arjantin Arjantin DKE
04.07.2021 Arjantin Arjantin 3-0 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador AKU
09.10.2020 Arjantin Arjantin 1-0 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
13.10.2019 Arjantin Arjantin 6-1 HT 3-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ

Arjantin 1-1 Ekvador — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arjantin
1-1
AWAY Ekvador
0.87 xG 1.73
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
310 Passes 290
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 22
5 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arjantin vs Ekvador
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arjantin and Ekvador couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Arjantin at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Arjantin had 51% of the ball to Ekvador's 49%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.87 to 1.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arjantin had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Arjantin and 0.33 for Ekvador.

What was the final score of Arjantin vs Ekvador?

Arjantin 1-1 Ekvador in the Copa America on 05/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arjantin vs Ekvador?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arjantin win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Arjantin 55%, draw 26%, Ekvador 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arjantin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arjantin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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