Export Sebaco 1-0 Walter Ferretti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 5 Aug 2024

📅05/08/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.68
No
56%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.2pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Export Sebaco EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Walter Ferretti EU Bookmakers 46%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -17%
1.94/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.94
+46% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +32%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Export Sebaco
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Walter Ferretti
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.02.2024 Walter Ferretti Walter Ferretti 0-1 HT 0-1 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
28.10.2023 Walter Ferretti Walter Ferretti 0-1 HT 0-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
28.08.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-0 HT 0-0 Walter Ferretti Walter Ferretti NİK
18.03.2023 Walter Ferretti Walter Ferretti 4-1 HT 2-1 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
29.01.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 1-2 HT 0-1 Walter Ferretti Walter Ferretti NİK
12.09.2022 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 1-1 HT 0-1 Walter Ferretti Walter Ferretti NİK
POST-MATCH Export Sebaco vs Walter Ferretti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Export Sebaco nicked a narrow win over Walter Ferretti 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Walter Ferretti at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Export Sebaco had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Export Sebaco and 1.17 for Walter Ferretti.

What was the final score of Export Sebaco vs Walter Ferretti?

Export Sebaco 1-0 Walter Ferretti in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 05/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Export Sebaco vs Walter Ferretti?

Before kick-off our model rated an Walter Ferretti win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Export Sebaco 34%, draw 25%, Walter Ferretti 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Walter Ferretti) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Walter Ferretti) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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