Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 5 Aug 2026

📅05/08/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.3
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.94
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
8%
8.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 30% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
72%
-8.1pp
20%
Draw
17%
+2.7pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 14%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.68/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.69
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -34%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
438 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
18.5 Crosses 11.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
03.08.2017 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-1 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVL
27.07.2017 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-2 HT 1-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
2-0
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.37 xG 0.16
17 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
525 Passes 164
22 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe saw off Sturm Graz 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.37 to 0.16.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.00 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?

Fenerbahçe 2-0 Sturm Graz in the Champions League on 05/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 64%, draw 20%, Sturm Graz 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ BTTS No
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