Aucas 0-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Cup, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
56%
-12.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
31%
Away Win
20%
+10.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
292 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Libertad
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.36 xG 1.38
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
323 Passes 193
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.08.2023 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
01.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
0-1
AWAY Libertad
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad nicked a narrow win over Aucas 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Aucas at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Aucas had 61% of the ball to Libertad's 39%, shots finished 20-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aucas and 1.33 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Libertad?

Aucas 0-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Cup on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Aucas 44%, draw 26%, Libertad 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Aucas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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