West Ham United vs Derby County Prediction, Probabilities & Odds — England - Championship, 5 Sep 2026

West Ham United
vs
Derby County
📅05/09/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
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England - Championship – 2026/2027

West Ham United vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
71%
1.42
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
11%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
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Both Teams to Score
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Total Goals
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Half Time / Full Time
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STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

West Ham United vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Ham United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Derby County
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.61 xG 0.50
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
336 Passes 286
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.01.2023 Derby County Derby County 0-2 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United FAK
31.12.2011 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 2-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNCL
26.11.2011 West Ham United West Ham United 3-1 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
19.04.2008 West Ham United West Ham United 2-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNP
10.11.2007 Derby County Derby County 0-5 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
23.01.2005 West Ham United West Ham United 1-2 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
PREVIEW West Ham United vs Derby County
IDDAAKOLIK MATCH PREVIEW

On our read, West Ham United at home is the clear lean — the question is whether the price already knows it.

Derby County's recent away league games have rarely been one-way — both sides scored in 4 of the last 5.

The rivalry ledger says that across their last 6 meetings in our records, West Ham United have the better of it with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.33 a game for West Ham United against 1.00 for Derby County.

West Ham United vs Derby County Kick-off Time

West Ham United play Derby County in the England - Championship on 05/09/2026, kick-off 17:00 (Istanbul · GMT+3).

West Ham United vs Derby County Match Prediction & Odds

Our model's prediction for West Ham United vs Derby County is a West Ham United win at about 71% probability, priced 1.42 at EU bookmakers. The full match-result split is West Ham United 71%, draw 18%, Derby County 11%. These are probability estimates, not certainties — the most likely outcome still loses much of the time.

Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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