Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Levski Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
43%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.9pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Levski Sofia EU Bookmakers 45%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
0.51/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.00
-52% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -10%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
236 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Levski Sofia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.11.2023 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 1-1 HT 1-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
22.07.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 1-3 HT 0-0 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
29.04.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-1 HT 0-0 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
1-0
AWAY Levski Sofia
39% Ball Possession 61%
2 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Plovdiv squeezed past Levski Sofia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Levski Sofia at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 39% of the ball to Levski Sofia's 61%, shots finished 2-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Levski Sofia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.67 for Levski Sofia.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?

Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Levski Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Levski Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 29%, draw 27%, Levski Sofia 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Levski Sofia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Levski Sofia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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