Nojima Stella (K) 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - WE League Women's, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.71
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
55%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
27%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
18%
+1.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
55%
Away Win
57%
-2.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.4pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nojima Stella (K) EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) EU Bookmakers 61%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +33% / +33%
1.01/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.49
+28% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +1%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
239 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nojima Stella (K)
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K)
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
06.05.2024 Nojima Stella (K) Nojima Stella (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) JWEL
06.01.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) 2-1 HT 0-0 Nojima Stella (K) Nojima Stella (K) JWEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nojima Stella (K)
0-1
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K)
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nojima Stella (K) vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) squeezed past Nojima Stella (K) 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Nojima Stella (K) had 45% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K)'s 55%, shots finished 5-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Nojima Stella (K) and 1.50 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K).

What was the final score of Nojima Stella (K) vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K)?

Nojima Stella (K) 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) in the Japan - WE League Women's on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nojima Stella (K) vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Nojima Stella (K) 20%, draw 25%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K) 55%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K)), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima (K)) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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