Ogre United 1-1 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

Ogre United
1-1
Progress / AFA Olaine
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2024

Ogre United vs Progress / AFA Olaine Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.33
Over 2.5
55%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
38%
+5.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.5pp
28%
Away Win
37%
-8.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
39%
+6.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
61%
-6.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.8pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ogre United v Progress / AFA Olaine — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ogre United EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
403 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Ogre United vs Progress / AFA Olaine Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ogre United
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
The Meetings
16.06.2024 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 3-3 HT 0-1 Ogre United LET1
POST-MATCH Ogre United vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ogre United and Progress / AFA Olaine shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Ogre United at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

What was the final score of Ogre United vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Ogre United 1-1 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ogre United vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ogre United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ogre United 44%, draw 28%, Progress / AFA Olaine 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ogre United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ogre United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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