Györi ETO 3-1 MOL Fehervar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.61
No
54%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 28% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.9pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Györi ETO EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY MOL Fehervar EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -14%
1.16/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.63
-28% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
394 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
Crosses 16.4
Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Györi ETO
2W-2D-2L
AWAY MOL Fehervar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.03.2022 Györi ETO Györi ETO 2-1 HT 0-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MACK
01.03.2015 Györi ETO Györi ETO 2-2 HT 1-2 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
09.08.2014 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 3-2 HT 0-1 Györi ETO Györi ETO MAC
16.03.2014 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar 0-1 HT 0-0 Györi ETO Györi ETO MAC
25.08.2013 Györi ETO Györi ETO 1-1 HT 1-1 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MAC
08.05.2013 Györi ETO Györi ETO 1-2 HT 0-0 MOL Fehervar MOL Fehervar MACK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Györi ETO
3-1
AWAY MOL Fehervar
3.19 xG 1.58
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
310 Passes 267
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Györi ETO vs MOL Fehervar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Györi ETO beat MOL Fehervar 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Györi ETO as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Györi ETO had 52% of the ball to MOL Fehervar's 48%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 3.19 to 1.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Györi ETO and 1.50 for MOL Fehervar.

What was the final score of Györi ETO vs MOL Fehervar?

Györi ETO 3-1 MOL Fehervar in the Hungary - NB I on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Györi ETO vs MOL Fehervar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Györi ETO win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Györi ETO 43%, draw 25%, MOL Fehervar 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Györi ETO) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Györi ETO) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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