MTK Budapest 3-1 Kecskemeti TE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.59
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 25% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-8.0pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Kecskemeti TE EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -19%
1.49/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.86
-18% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
497 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 81%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
16.1 Crosses 16.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MTK Budapest
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kecskemeti TE
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.00 xG 0.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
260 Passes 315
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
30.03.2024 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 2-2 HT 1-1 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE MAC
02.12.2023 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE 1-2 HT 1-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
19.08.2023 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 1-0 HT 0-0 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE MAC
02.05.2015 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 0-0 HT 0-0 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE MAC
18.10.2014 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE 0-1 HT 0-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
19.04.2014 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE 3-0 HT 2-0 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MTK Budapest
3-1
AWAY Kecskemeti TE
1.61 xG 1.18
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 5
325 Passes 439
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH MTK Budapest vs Kecskemeti TE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MTK Budapest saw off Kecskemeti TE 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had MTK Budapest as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, MTK Budapest had 44% of the ball to Kecskemeti TE's 56%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 1.61 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MTK Budapest had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for MTK Budapest and 1.00 for Kecskemeti TE.

What was the final score of MTK Budapest vs Kecskemeti TE?

MTK Budapest 3-1 Kecskemeti TE in the Hungary - NB I on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MTK Budapest vs Kecskemeti TE?

Before kick-off our model rated a MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split MTK Budapest 43%, draw 29%, Kecskemeti TE 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (MTK Budapest), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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