Greenville Triumph 2-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
54%
+2.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.8pp
22%
Away Win
22%
-0.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greenville Triumph EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 25%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -10%
1.60/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.87
-13% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 80%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
19.2 Crosses 16.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greenville Triumph
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Lexington
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.87 xG 0.81
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
326 Passes 319
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.03.2024 Lexington Lexington 2-3 HT 1-0 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
15.10.2023 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph 1-1 HT 0-0 Lexington Lexington USL1
02.09.2023 Lexington Lexington 1-1 HT 0-0 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
23.04.2023 Lexington Lexington 0-2 HT 0-1 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greenville Triumph
2-1
AWAY Lexington
0.90 xG 0.45
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
404 Passes 403
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Greenville Triumph vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greenville Triumph nicked a narrow win over Lexington 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Greenville Triumph as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Greenville Triumph had 49% of the ball to Lexington's 51%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 0.90 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Greenville Triumph had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Greenville Triumph and 1.00 for Lexington.

What was the final score of Greenville Triumph vs Lexington?

Greenville Triumph 2-1 Lexington in the USA - USL League 1 on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greenville Triumph vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greenville Triumph win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Greenville Triumph 56%, draw 22%, Lexington 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Greenville Triumph), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Greenville Triumph) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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