Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay Prediction — Model Probabilities
Phoenix Rising v Monterey Bay — Team-Based Signals
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
Phoenix Rising 1-2 Monterey Bay — Actual Match Statistics
Monterey Bay came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Phoenix Rising 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Phoenix Rising at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 50% for over 2.5, 50% on both teams scoring.
On the day, possession split 63% to 37% in Phoenix Rising's favour, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 2.00 to 0.57 — by the quality of chances, Phoenix Rising deserved more.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.00 a game for Phoenix Rising against 1.40 for Monterey Bay.
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay Result & Final Score
Phoenix Rising 1 - 2 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 62%, draw 22%, Monterey Bay 16%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.