Monterey Bay 1-0 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 26% vs market 20.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
33%
+1.4pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.56/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.38
+8% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
19.9 Crosses 20.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterey Bay
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.53 xG 1.53
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
338 Passes 425
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.07.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-2 HT 0-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
16.04.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-1 HT 0-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
22.09.2022 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 3-3 HT 3-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
13.03.2022 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 4-2 HT 4-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterey Bay
1-0
AWAY Phoenix Rising
0.72 xG 0.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
334 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
FAQ Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Monterey Bay edged past Phoenix Rising 1-0 in the USL Championship on 17 Mar 2024.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Monterey Bay had 52% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 48%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.72 to 0.25.

Across their last 4 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising lead the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Monterey Bay and 2.50 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising?

Monterey Bay 1-0 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated an Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Monterey Bay 35%, draw 27%, Phoenix Rising 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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