Motagua 4-3 Genesis PN — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
4%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.9pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.6pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Genesis PN EU Bookmakers 19%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.08/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.58
+5% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
408 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Genesis PN
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
08.05.2025 Genesis PN 1-4 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
03.02.2025 Genesis PN 1-1 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
11.11.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-1 HT 2-0 Genesis PN HON
15.09.2024 Genesis PN 0-3 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
04.04.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-0 HT 0-0 Genesis PN HON
05.02.2024 Genesis PN 0-1 HT 0-1 Motagua Motagua HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Genesis PN
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua squeezed past Genesis PN 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Motagua as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motagua had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Motagua and 0.50 for Genesis PN.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Genesis PN?

Motagua 4-3 Genesis PN in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Genesis PN?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Motagua 57%, draw 22%, Genesis PN 20%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motagua), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Motagua) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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