Atletico Nacional 1-1 Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 5 Nov 2024

Atletico Nacional
1-1 HT 1-1
Santa Fe
📅05/11/2024 · 🕒04:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+1.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.2pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.19/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.18
+6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
18.7 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.7

Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Santa Fe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.20 xG 0.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
249 Passes 305
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
21.09.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
12.05.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
30.09.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
29.03.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-1 HT 2-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
16.09.2021 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOLK

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Santa Fe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-1
AWAY Santa Fe
0.88 xG 1.08
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
337 Passes 175
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
12 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Nacional at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 62% of the ball to Santa Fe's 38%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 0.88 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.33 for Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

Atletico Nacional 1-1 Santa Fe in the Colombia - Primera on 05/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 47%, draw 29%, Santa Fe 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Nacional), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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