Express 4-1 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 5 Nov 2025

📅05/11/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.52
Over 2.5
49%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.27
No
50%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
15%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.3pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
62%
-11.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
38%
+11.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
40%
+9.7pp
50%
BTTS No
60%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Express EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 23%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.62/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.28
+4% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
338 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Express
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
28.11.2024 Express Express 3-1 HT 2-1 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
25.03.2022 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 Express Express UGA
07.12.2021 Express Express 2-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Express
4-1
AWAY Mbarara City
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Express vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Express cruised past Mbarara City 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Express as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Express had 44% of the ball to Mbarara City's 56%, shots finished 12-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Express had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Express and 0.33 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of Express vs Mbarara City?

Express 4-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 05/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Express vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Express win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Express 50%, draw 26%, Mbarara City 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Express) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Express) ✗ Under 2.5
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