Express vs Mbarara City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Express v Mbarara City — Team-Based Signals
Express vs Mbarara City Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Express
UGA
2-0
HT 1-0
Mbarara City
UGA
Express 4-1 Mbarara City — Actual Match Statistics
Express cruised past Mbarara City 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Express as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Express had 44% of the ball to Mbarara City's 56%, shots finished 12-15.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Express had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Express and 0.33 for Mbarara City.
What was the final score of Express vs Mbarara City?
Express 4-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 05/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Express vs Mbarara City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Express win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Express 50%, draw 26%, Mbarara City 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Express) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.